31. The organizer of this session was Mr. A. Lindner, Head of Trade, Industry and Agricultural Section, National Account Division, Statistics Directorate, Organization for Economic Cooperation and  Development (OECD); and the discussant was Mr. F. Vogel, Deputy Administrator, National Agricultural Statistics Service, USDA.

 

32. Three papers were presented:

(i)“The Importance of Chinese Agriculture in The World Economy” (G. Bange);

(ii)“China’s Food and the World” (J. Bruinsma);

(iii)“From Food Security to Household Well-being: Developing the Data Agenda” (M. Ward).

 

33. In the first paper, the US perspective on PRC’s agricultural economy and future prospects were presented, with reference to the results of the census. The need for accurate and timely commodity data for forecasting and planning was stressed. The importance of consistent data for the USDA’s baseline projections and the need to reconcile the wealth of agricultural census data with current statistics in order to give sound estimates for measures of self-sufficiency and the world grain market was underlined. Accurate short-term baseline projections are critical for the world market system to function efficiently and to promote sound political decisions. Clearly, USDA’s assessment of the agricultural situation and prospects in PRC and its trade implications have changed progressively with improved information generated by the census. Some concern was expressed as to the crucial role of a sustainable and adequate supply of water for the Chinese agricultural economy, a key element for maintaining food self-sufficiency.

 

34. The second paper focused on FAO’s long-term projections on Chinese food supply and demand. It was noted that increases in per capita food supply, leading to decreasing growth rates in apparent food consumption, were leading to a slowdown in food demand growth. Although food security remains on the policy agenda, it seemed to be less critical than in the past. The Chinese Agricultural Census contributed enormously to rectifying perceptions by providing solid statistical data. Fears were expressed that PRC would become a very large net importer, but the data from the census suggested that PRC has significantly more agricultural land than the official current data show, hence more potential to increase domestic production.

 

35. The third paper affirmed that the higher levels of consumption in PRC now permitted us to consider the objective of the improvements in household living standards and how to attain a significant reduction in poverty. To this end, some new statistical tools based on the census as the appropriate benchmark reference need to be developed. It was stressed that this larger and more complex concept of linking agricultural production to living standards would require improvements in the way agricultural surveys operate. A case was made for improved and more integrated surveys.

 

36. The three presentations triggered a lively discussion. They provided views on the use of the census to improve projections of PRC’s future production capabilities and their effects on government policies, and on the contribution of the census to understanding PRC’s agriculture in the world economy. An analysis of the sources of error in baseline projections was presented. To this end, an issue that was repeatedly stressed was the importance of sound, reliable and consistent data. Compartmentalized surveys often lead to inconsistent, conflicting data. A call was made for a better integration and co-ordination of surveys, with more focus on the dynamics of change instead of measures of level. A case was made for the agricultural household as the basic statistical unit instead of the agricultural holding, to enable the relationship between different types of economic activities in rural areas to be analyzed. In response, the analytical importance of current crop condition assessment information was emphasized, as well as the need for accurate stock data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton.