Purchasing Managers Index for January 2019
National Bureau of Statistics of China2019-02-02 08:51




Department of Service Statistics of NBS

China Federation of Logistics and Purchases (CFLP)

 

In January 2019, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was increased, Non-manufacturing purchasing managers index kept increased in two months, the increase has expanded, and the non-manufacturing purchasing managers index of service industry increased significantly.  The overall PMI output index rose moderately, more than the high point of the fourth quarter of last year.

 

1. Manufacturing purchasing managers index

 

In January 2019, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 49.5 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from last month. 

 

 

In view of the sizes of enterprises, the PMI of large-sized enterprises was 51.3 percent, increased 1.2 percentage points from last month, and was still higher than the threshold; that of medium-sized enterprises and small-sized enterprises were 47.2 and 47.3 percent, which decreased 1.2 and 1.3 percent from last month respectively, and were all lower than the threshold.  

 

Among the five sub-indices composing PMI, the production index and supplier delivery time index were higher than the threshold. The new orders index and main raw materials inventory index and employed person index were lower than the threshold.

 

Production index was 50.9 percent, increased 0.1 percentage point from last month, and was    higher than the threshold, indicating that the Manufacturing production continues to expand, and the pace of manufacturing production accelerated.

 

New orders index was 49.6 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point month-on-month, and was lower than the threshold, showing that the manufacturing market demand was decreased.

 

Main raw materials inventory index was 48.1 percent, increased 1.0 percentage point from last month, and was still lower than the threshold, indicating that the amount of manufacturing industry’s main raw material inventory decreased, while the decline of manufacturing industry’s main raw material inventory has narrowed.

 

Employed person index was 47.8 percent, decreased 0.2 percentage point from last month, lower than the threshold, indicating that the amount of manufacturing enterprises’ labor employment kept decreased.

 

Supplier delivery time index was 50.1 percent, decreased 0.3 percentage point from last month, and was little higher than the threshold, indicating that the delivery time of manufacturing raw material suppliers has accelerated.

 

China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

PMI

 

Production Index

New Orders Index

Main Raw Materials Inventory Index

Employed Person Index

Supplier Delivery Time Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2018-January

51.3

53.5

52.6

48.8

48.3

49.2

Fdbuary

50.3

50.7

51.0

49.3

48.1

48.4

March

51.5

53.1

53.3

49.6

49.1

50.1

April

51.4

53.1

52.9

49.5

49.0

50.2

May

51.9

54.1

53.8

49.6

49.1

50.1

June

51.5

53.6

53.2

48.8

49.0

50.2

July

51.2

53.0

52.3

48.9

49.2

50.0

August

51.3

53.3

52.2

48.7

49.4

49.6

September

50.8

53.0

52.0

47.8

48.3

49.7

October

50.2

52.0

50.8

47.2

48.1

49.5

November

50.0

51.9

50.4

47.4

48.3

50.3

Demcember

49.4

50.8

49.7

47.1

48.0

50.4

2019-January

49.5

50.9

49.6

48.1

47.8

50.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Related Indicators of China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

New Export Orders Index

Import Index

Purchase Quantity Index

Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index

Producer Price Index

Finished Goods Inventory Index

Open Orders Index

Production And Business Activities Expectation Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2018-January

49.5

50.4

52.9

59.7

51.8

47.0

45.3

56.8

Fdbuary

49.0

49.8

50.8

53.4

49.2

46.7

44.9

58.2

March

51.3

51.3

53.0

53.4

48.9

47.3

46.0

58.7

April

50.7

50.2

52.6

53.0

50.2

47.2

46.2

58.4

May

51.2

50.9

53.0

56.7

53.2

46.1

45.9

58.7

June

49.8

50.0

52.8

57.7

53.3

46.3

45.5

57.9

July

49.8

49.6

51.5

54.3

50.5

47.1

45.7

56.6

August

49.4

49.1

51.8

58.7

54.3

47.4

46.7

57.0

September

48.0

48.5

51.5

59.8

54.3

47.4

45.2

56.4

October

46.9

47.6

51.0

58.0

52.0

47.1

44.3

56.4

November

47.0

47.1

50.8

50.3

46.4

48.6

44.3

54.2

Demcember

46.6

45.9

49.8

44.8

43.3

48.2

44.1

52.7

2019-January

46.9

47.1

49.1

46.3

44.5

47.1

43.7

52.5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2. Non-manufacturing purchasing managers index

 

In January 2019, China's non-manufacturing purchasing managers index was 54.7 percent, an increase of 0.9 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the pace of non-manufacturing growth has accelerated.

 

 

In view of different industries, non-manufacturing purchasing managers index of service industry was 53.6 percent, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the pace of service industry increase has accelerated. Of which, the indices of Wholesale, railway transport,  Air transport, Post, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services, Monetary financial services, insurance were positioned in the high level of the range which above 57.0 percent, and the industry performance is more active; The indices of capital market services, real estate were located in the contraction interval, and the total volume of business kept decreased. Non-manufacturing purchasing manager index of construction industry achieved 60.9 percent, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, the pace of growth increase has slowed down. 

 

New orders index was 51.0 percent, increased 0.6 percentage point from the previous month, and was higher than the threshold, indicating that the pace of non-manufacturing industry’s market demand has accelerated. In view of different industries, the new orders index of service industry was 50.2 percent, increased 0.9 percentage point from the previous month, and rose above the threshold. The new orders index of construction industry was 55.8 percent, decreased 0.7 percentage point from the previous month, and and still located in the high level expansion interval.

 

Input price index was 52.0 percent, up by 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, and was higher than the threshold, indicating that the increase of input price increase during the process of non-manufacturing enterprises’ operating activities has expanded. In view of different industries, the intermediate input price indices of service industry was 51.8 percent, increased 2.2 percentage points from the previous month. The input price index of construction industry was 53.1 percent, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from the previous month.

 

The sales price index was 48.9 percent, up by 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, and was still lower than the threshold, indicating that the overall level of non-manufacturing sales prices decline has narrowed. In view of different industries, the sales price index of service industry was 49.4 percent, an increase of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month. The sales price index of construction industry was 51.9 percent, an increase of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month.

 

Employment index was 48.6 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and was lower than the threshold, indicating that the amount of non-manufacturing enterprises’ labor employment decreased. In view of different industries, the employment index of service industry was 47.8 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The employment index of construction industry was 53.1 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage point from the previous month.

 

Business activities expectation index was 59.6 percent, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from last month, continually to stay in the high level of the range, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises companies were optimistic about market development expectations. In view of different industries, the business activities expectation index of service industry was 58.8 percent, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month. That of construction industry was 64.5 percent, unchanged from the previous month.

 

Main Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

Non-manufacturing

PMI

New Orders Index

Input Price Index

Sales Price Index

Employment Index

Business Activities Expectation Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2018-January

55.3

51.9

53.9

52.6

49.4

61.7

Fdbuary

54.4

50.5

53.2

49.9

49.6

61.2

March

54.6

50.1

49.9

49.3

49.2

61.1

April

54.8

51.1

52.7

50.6

49.0

61.5

May

54.9

51.0

54.2

50.6

49.2

61.0

June

55.0

50.6

53.5

51.1

48.9

60.8

July

54.0

51.0

53.9

52.0

50.2

60.2

August

54.2

50.6

54.3

50.9

50.4

61.4

September

54.9

51.0

55.6

51.5

49.3

60.1

October

53.9

50.1

54.9

51.2

48.9

60.6

November

53.4

50.1

50.8

49.4

48.7

60.9

Demcember

53.8

50.4

50.1

47.6

48.5

60.8

2019-January

54.7

51.0

52.0

49.8

48.6

59.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

Foreign New Orders Index

Unfilled Orders Index

Stock Index

Supplier Delivery Time Index

 

 

 

 

 

2018-January

50.1

44.4

46.5

51.3

Fdbuary

45.9

43.8

47.6

50.7

March

50.4

44.3

46.2

51.6

April

50.0

44.4

46.7

51.5

May

49.1

44.1

46.0

51.7

June

48.2

44.0

46.4

51.6

July

48.9

45.4

45.6

51.3

August

49.0

43.9

46.5

51.4

September

49.8

43.8

47.1

51.6

October

47.8

43.8

47.4

51.5

November

50.1

43.7

46.7

51.4

Demcember

49.0

43.7

46.6

51.9

2019-January

49.5

44.0

47.6

51.4

 

 

 

 

 

 

3. Composite PMI Output Index

 

In January 2019, China's Composite PMI Output Index was 53.2 percent, an increase of 0.6 percentage point from last month, indicating that the economy has improved, and the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continued to expanded, while the index of expansion has accelerated.

 

 

Annotations:

 

1. Explanatory Notes

 

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The Composite PMI Output Index, belonging to the PMI indicator system, is a composite index reflecting the changes in the output in current period of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries). The threshold of PMI is usually using 50 percent as the cut-off point for economic performance. If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is in recession.

 

2.Statistical Coverage

 

The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing industry in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2011), and 3000 samples, as well as 31 divisions of non-manufacturing industry, and 4000 samples.

 

3. Survey Methods

 

PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.

 

The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.

 

4. Calculation Methods

 

(1) Calculation Methods of Sub-indices.

 

The indicator system of manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 13 sub-indices such as production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, production and business activities expectation. Non-manufacturing purchasing managers survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers delivery time, and business activities expectation. The indicator system of non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 10 sub-indices such as business activities, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers delivery time, and business activities expectation. Sub-indices adopt diffusion index calculation method, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development.

 

(2) Calculation Methods of Manufacturing PMI.

 

Manufacturing PMI was calculated according to five diffusion indices (group indices) and their weights. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employees index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.

 

(3) Calculation Methods of Composite PMI Output Index. 

 

Composite PMI Output Index was calculated by weighted summation of the manufacturing output index and non-manufacturing business activity index. Their weights are determined by the proportion manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in GDP. This index will be released since January 2018.

 

5. Seasonal adjustment

 

The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data.

 

 

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