Purchasing Managers Index for March 2018
Department of Service Statistics of NBS
China Federation of Logistics and Purchases (CFLP)
1. Manufacturing purchasing managers index
In March 2018, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 51.5 percent, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from last month. The manufacturing industry showed a development trend of steady rise.
In view of the sizes of enterprises, the PMI of large-sized enterprises was 52.4 percent, increased 0.2 percentage points from last month, and continued to stay in the expansion range; that of medium-sized and small-sized enterprises were 50.4 and 50.1 percent, increased 1.4 and 5.3 percentage points from last month respectively, higher than the threshold.
Among the five sub-indices composing PMI, the production index, new orders index and supplier delivery time index were higher than the threshold. The main raw materials inventory index and employed person index and were lower than the threshold.
Production index was 53.1 percent, an increase of 2.4 percentage points month-on-month, and was in the expansion range, indicating that the growth of manufacturing production has accelerated, with the intensive start of business after the Spring Festival.
New orders index was 53.3 percent, an increase of 2.3 percentage points month-on-month, higher than the threshold, showing that the the expansion of manufacturing market demand has accelerated.
Main raw materials inventory index was 49.6 percent, increased 0.3 percentage points from last month, kept rising for three consecutive months, and was lower than the threshold, indicating that the pace of decline of manufacturing industry’s main raw material inventory continued to be narrowed.
Employed person index was 49.1 percent, increased 1.0 percentage point from last month, lower than the threshold, indicating that the pace of decline of manufacturing enterprises’ labor employment has narrowed.
Supplier delivery time index was 50.1 percent, increased 1.7 percentage points from last month, and was above the threshold, indicating that the delivery time of manufacturing raw material suppliers has speeded up.
| China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||||
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| Production Index | New Orders Index | Main Raw Materials Inventory Index | Employed Person Index | Supplier Delivery Time Index | ||
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| 2017-March | 51.8 | 54.2 | 53.3 | 48.3 | 50.0 | 50.3 |
| April | 51.2 | 53.8 | 52.3 | 48.3 | 49.2 | 50.5 |
| May | 51.2 | 53.4 | 52.3 | 48.5 | 49.4 | 50.2 |
| June | 51.7 | 54.4 | 53.1 | 48.6 | 49.0 | 49.9 |
| July | 51.4 | 53.5 | 52.8 | 48.5 | 49.2 | 50.1 |
| August | 51.7 | 54.1 | 53.1 | 48.3 | 49.1 | 49.3 |
| September | 52.4 | 54.7 | 54.8 | 48.9 | 49.0 | 49.3 |
| October | 51.6 | 53.4 | 52.9 | 48.6 | 49.0 | 48.7 |
| November | 51.8 | 54.3 | 53.6 | 48.4 | 48.8 | 49.5 |
| December | 51.6 | 54.0 | 53.4 | 48.0 | 48.5 | 49.3 |
| 2018-January | 51.3 | 53.5 | 52.6 | 48.8 | 48.3 | 49.2 |
| February | 50.3 | 50.7 | 51.0 | 49.3 | 48.1 | 48.4 |
| March | 51.5 | 53.1 | 53.3 | 49.6 | 49.1 | 50.1 |
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| Related Indicators of China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||||||
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| New Export Orders Index | Import Index | Purchase Quantity Index | Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index | Producer Price Index | Finished Goods Inventory Index | Open Orders Index | Production And Business Activities Expectation Index |
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| 2017-March | 51.0 | 50.5 | 53.4 | 59.3 | 53.2 | 47.3 | 46.1 | 58.3 |
| April | 50.6 | 50.2 | 51.9 | 51.8 | 48.7 | 48.2 | 45.0 | 56.6 |
| May | 50.7 | 50.0 | 51.5 | 49.5 | 47.6 | 46.6 | 45.4 | 56.8 |
| June | 52.0 | 51.2 | 52.5 | 50.4 | 49.1 | 46.3 | 47.2 | 58.7 |
| July | 50.9 | 51.1 | 52.7 | 57.9 | 52.7 | 46.1 | 46.3 | 59.1 |
| August | 50.4 | 51.4 | 52.9 | 65.3 | 57.4 | 45.5 | 46.1 | 59.5 |
| September | 51.3 | 51.1 | 53.8 | 68.4 | 59.4 | 44.2 | 47.4 | 59.4 |
| October | 50.1 | 50.3 | 53.2 | 63.4 | 55.2 | 46.1 | 45.6 | 57.0 |
| November | 50.8 | 51.0 | 53.5 | 59.8 | 53.8 | 46.1 | 46.6 | 57.9 |
| December | 51.9 | 51.2 | 53.6 | 62.2 | 54.4 | 45.8 | 46.3 | 58.7 |
| 2018-January | 49.5 | 50.4 | 52.9 | 59.7 | 51.8 | 47.0 | 45.3 | 56.8 |
| February | 49.0 | 49.8 | 50.8 | 53.4 | 49.2 | 46.7 | 44.9 | 58.2 |
| March | 51.3 | 51.3 | 53.0 | 53.4 | 48.9 | 47.3 | 46.0 | 58.7 |
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2. Non-manufacturing purchasing managers index
In March 2018, China's non-manufacturing purchasing managers index was 54.6 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The non-manufacturing industry still maintained steady and rapid operation as a whole.
In view of different industries, non-manufacturing purchasing managers index of service industry was 53.6 percent, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but higher than last year’s average, and the service industry maintained steady expansion. Of which, the indices of transport via railway, air transport, post and express delivery, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services, Internet, software and information technology services, monetary financial services, capital market services, insurance, were positioned in the high level of the range which above 55.0 percent, and have shown strong expanding momentum. The indices of transport via road, restaurants, real estate, were lower than the threshold, and the total business decreased. Non-manufacturing purchasing manager index of construction industry achieved 60.7 percent, an increase of 3.2 percentage points from the previous month. The production and operation activities of construction industry has accelerated significantly.
New orders index was 50.1 percent, down by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, while continued to stay above the threshold, indicating that the growth rate of market demand of non-manufacturing industry declined. In view of different industries, the new orders index of service industry was 49.8 percent, decreased 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the threshold. The new orders index of construction industry was 52.0 percent, increased 2.5 percentage points from the previous month, and rose above the threshold.
Input price index was 49.9 percent, down by 3.3 percentage points from the previous month, and lower than the threshold, indicating that the input price during the process of non-manufacturing enterprises’ operating activities declined slightly. In view of different industries, the intermediate input price indices of service industry was 50.3 percent, decreased 2.1 percentage points from the previous month. The input price index of construction industry was 48.0 percent, a decrease of 9.9 percentage points from the previous month.
The sales price index was 49.3 percent, down by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the threshold, indicating that the overall level of non-manufacturing sales prices decreased. In view of different industries, the sales price index of service industry was 48.9 percent, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month.The sales price index of construction industry was 51.9 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
Employment index was 49.2 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and continued to be lower than the threshold. In view of different industries, the employment index of service industry was 48.6 percent, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The employment index of construction industry was 52.6 percent, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month.
Business activities expectation index was 61.1 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from last month, and kept staying in the high level of the range which above 60.0 percent for eleven consecutive months. In view of different industries, the business activities expectation index of service industry was 60.1 percent, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. That of construction industry was 66.7 percent, an increase of 1.0 percentage point from the previous month.
| Main Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||||
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| Non-manufacturing PMI | New Orders Index | Input Price Index | Sales Price Index | Employment Index | Business Activities Expectation Index |
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| 2017-March | 55.1 | 51.9 | 52.3 | 49.7 | 49.1 | 61.3 |
| April | 54.0 | 50.5 | 51.7 | 50.2 | 49.5 | 59.7 |
| May | 54.5 | 50.9 | 51.1 | 48.8 | 49.0 | 60.2 |
| June | 54.9 | 51.4 | 51.2 | 49.3 | 49.6 | 61.1 |
| July | 54.5 | 51.1 | 53.1 | 50.9 | 49.5 | 61.1 |
| August | 53.4 | 50.9 | 54.4 | 51.5 | 49.5 | 61.0 |
| September | 55.4 | 52.3 | 56.1 | 51.7 | 49.7 | 61.7 |
| October | 54.3 | 51.1 | 54.3 | 51.6 | 49.4 | 60.6 |
| November | 54.8 | 51.8 | 56.2 | 52.8 | 49.2 | 61.6 |
| December | 55.0 | 52.0 | 54.8 | 52.6 | 49.3 | 60.9 |
| 2018-January | 55.3 | 51.9 | 53.9 | 52.6 | 49.4 | 61.7 |
| February | 54.4 | 50.5 | 53.2 | 49.9 | 49.6 | 61.2 |
| March | 54.6 | 50.1 | 49.9 | 49.3 | 49.2 | 61.1 |
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| Other Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted) | ||||
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| Foreign New Orders Index | Unfilled Orders Index | Stock Index | Supplier Delivery Time Index |
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| 2017-March | 48.8 | 44.7 | 45.8 | 51.4 |
| April | 47.1 | 44.0 | 46.2 | 52.0 |
| May | 48.5 | 43.7 | 46.1 | 51.8 |
| June | 49.8 | 44.6 | 45.9 | 51.8 |
| July | 52.1 | 43.9 | 45.9 | 51.7 |
| August | 49.0 | 44.0 | 45.5 | 51.1 |
| September | 49.7 | 44.2 | 47.0 | 51.6 |
| October | 50.7 | 43.9 | 46.4 | 51.1 |
| November | 50.9 | 44.1 | 46.5 | 51.6 |
| December | 51.5 | 43.8 | 46.3 | 51.3 |
| 2018-January | 50.1 | 44.4 | 46.5 | 51.3 |
| February | 45.9 | 43.8 | 47.6 | 50.7 |
| March | 50.4 | 44.3 | 46.2 | 51.6 |
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3. Composite PMI Output Index
In March 2018, China's Composite PMI Output Index was 54.0 percent, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from last month, and continued to be higher than the threshold, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises presented a development trend of accelerating expansion.
Annotations:
1. Explanatory Notes
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The Composite PMI Output Index, belonging to the PMI indicator system, is a composite index reflecting the changes in the output in current period of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries). The threshold of PMI is usually using 50 percent as the cut-off point for economic performance. If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is in recession.
2.Statistical Coverage
The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing industry in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2011), and 3000 samples, as well as 31 divisions of non-manufacturing industry, and 4000 samples.
3. Survey Methods
PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.
The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.
4. Calculation Methods
(1) Calculation Methods of Sub-indices.
The indicator system of manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 13 sub-indices such as production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, production and business activities expectation. Non-manufacturing purchasing managers survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers delivery time, and business activities expectation. The indicator system of non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 10 sub-indices such as business activities, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers delivery time, and business activities expectation. Sub-indices adopt diffusion index calculation method, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development.
(2) Calculation Methods of Manufacturing PMI.
Manufacturing PMI was calculated according to five diffusion indices (group indices) and their weights. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employees index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.
(3) Calculation Methods of Composite PMI Output Index.
Composite PMI Output Index was calculated by weighted summation of the manufacturing output index and non-manufacturing business activity index. Their weights are determined by the proportion manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in GDP. This index will be released since January 2018.
5. Seasonal adjustment
The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data.