China's PMI Was 51.6 Percent in October
National Bureau of Statistics of China2017-10-31 15:43




Department of Service Statistics of NBS

China Federation of Logistics and Purchases (CFLP)

 

In October 2017, China's manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) was 51.6 percent, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from last month, having met the average level of this year. The manufacturing industry continued  expansion momentum.

 

 

In view of the sizes of enterprises, the PMI of large-sized enterprises was 53.1 percent, decreased 0.7 percentage points from last month, still in the expansion range; that of medium-sized and small-sized enterprises were 49.8 and 49.0 percent respectively, decreased 1.3 and 0.4 percentage points from last month, both below the threshold. 

 

Among the five sub-indices composing PMI, the production index and new orders index were higher than the threshold. The main raw materials inventory index, employed person index and supplier delivery time index were lower than the threshold.

 

Production index was 53.4 percent, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points month-on-month, and was still higher than the threshold, indicating that the manufacturing production maintained growing, while the growth rate declined. 

 

New orders index was 52.9 percent, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points month-on-month, higher than the threshold, showing that the amount of increase of manufacturing market demand has narrowed.

 

Main raw materials inventory index was 48.6 percent, decreased 0.3 percentage points from last month, lower than the threshold, indicating that the main raw material inventory of manufacturing industry continued to decrease. 

 

Employed person index was 49.0 percent, unchanged from last month, lower than the threshold, indicating that the labor employment of manufacturing enterprises declined.

 

Supplier delivery time index was 48.7 percent, decreased 0.6 percentage points from last month, and continued to stay below the threshold, indicating that the delivery time of manufacturing raw material suppliers slowed down.

 

China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

PMI

 

Production Index

New Orders Index

Main Raw Materials Inventory Index

Employed Person Index

Supplier Delivery Time Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2016-October

51.2

53.3

52.8

48.1

48.8

50.2

November

51.7

53.9

53.2

48.4

49.2

49.7

December

51.4

53.3

53.2

48.0

48.9

50.0

2017-January

51.3

53.1

52.8

48.0

49.2

49.8

February

51.6

53.7

53.0

48.6

49.7

50.5

March

51.8

54.2

53.3

48.3

50.0

50.3

April

51.2

53.8

52.3

48.3

49.2

50.5

May

51.2

53.4

52.3

48.5

49.4

50.2

June

51.7

54.4

53.1

48.6

49.0

49.9

July

51.4

53.5

52.8

48.5

49.2

50.1

August

51.7

54.1

53.1

48.3

49.1

49.3

September

52.4

54.7

54.8

48.9

49.0

49.3

October

51.6

53.4

52.9

48.6

49.0

48.7

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Related Indicators (Seasonally Adjusted)

Unit: %

 

New Export Orders Index

Import Index

Purchase Quantity Index

Main Raw Material Purchase Price Index

Producer Price Index

Finished Goods Inventory Index

Open Orders Index

Production And Business Activities Expectation Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2016-October

49.2

49.9

52.4

62.6

55.5

46.9

45.8

58.2

November

50.3

50.6

52.9

68.3

58.3

45.9

46.7

59.0

December

50.1

50.3

52.1

69.6

58.8

44.4

46.2

58.2

2017-January

50.3

50.7

52.6

64.5

54.7

45.0

46.3

58.5

February

50.8

51.2

51.4

64.2

56.3

47.6

46.0

60.0

March

51.0

50.5

53.4

59.3

53.2

47.3

46.1

58.3

April

50.6

50.2

51.9

51.8

48.7

48.2

45.0

56.6

May

50.7

50.0

51.5

49.5

47.6

46.6

45.4

56.8

June

52.0

51.2

52.5

50.4

49.1

46.3

47.2

58.7

July

50.9

51.1

52.7

57.9

52.7

46.1

46.3

59.1

August

50.4

51.4

52.9

65.3

57.4

45.5

46.1

59.5

September

51.3

51.1

53.8

68.4

59.4

44.2

47.4

59.4

October

50.1

50.3

53.2

63.4

55.2

46.1

45.6

57.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annotations:

 

1. Explanatory Notes

 

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises purchasing managers. It covers every links of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, logistics, and so on. It is one of the leading indices which was commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends, and played an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The threshold of PMI is usually using 50 percent as the cut-off point for economic performance. If PMI above 50 percent, it reflects the manufacturing economy is expanding; if less than 50 percent, it reflects the manufacturing economy is in recession.

 

2.Statistical Coverage

 

The survey involves 31 divisions of manufacturing sector in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities” (GB/T4754-2011), and 3000 samples.

 

3. Survey Methods

 

PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing sector as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing sector. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenues of the enterprises.

 

The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.

 

4. Calculation Methods

 

The questionnaire of manufacturing purchasing managers survey covers 13 questions related to production, new orders, export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchase price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employees, suppliers, delivery time, production and business activities expectation and etc.. Diffusion index was calculated for each question, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Of which, the producer price index was released since January 2017.

 

PMI is a composite index, which was calculated according to five diffusion indices (group indices) and their weights. 5 group indices and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new orders index weighted 30 percent; production index weighted 25 percent; employees index weighted 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weighted 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weighted 10 percent. Of which, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.

 

5. Seasonal adjustment

 

The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released PMI composite index and sub-indices are seasonally adjusted data. Since January 2017, the seasonal adjustment method for production and business activities expectation index was improved, and the historical data was revised.

 

 

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