China's Non-manufacturing PMI was 53.1 Percent in October

National Bureau of Statistics of China 2015-11-02 16:50 Print| Large| Medium| Small

Department of Service Statistics of NBS

China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)

In October 2015, non-manufacturing purchasing manager index was 53.1 percent, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points over the previous month, and continued to be in the expansion range.

In view of different industries, non-manufacturing purchasing manager index of service industry was 52.3 percent, decreased 0.7 percentage points over the previous month. Due to factors such as the National Day holiday, the performance of accommodation, retail trade, express delivery, tourism, transport via road, air transport and other service industries was active, and the enterprise business increased rapidly; the indices of wholesale, capital market services, resident services and repair were below the threshold, and the total enterprise business declined. Non-manufacturing purchasing manager index of construction industry achieved 57.1 percent, up by 1.9 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that the production activity of construction enterprises had been accelerated.

New orders index was 51.2 percent, up by 1.0 percentage point over the previous month, rising for two consecutive months. In view of different industries, the new orders index of service industry was 48.9 percent, decreased 1.4 percentage points over the previous month. The new orders index of construction industry was 55.1 percent, increased 5.5 percentage points over the previous month, and was higher than the threshold, indicating that the market demand of construction industry rebounded.

Input price index was 51.2 percent, up by 0.4 percentage points over last month, and still stayed over the threshold, indicating that the input price during the process of production and operation of non-manufacturing enterprises increased slightly. In view of different industries, the intermediate input price index of service industry was 51.7 percent, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month. The input price index of construction industry was 47.9 percent, remained at the same level over the previous month.

The sales price index was 48.8 percent, 0.9 percentage points higher over last month, and was still below the threshold. In view of different industries, the sales price index of service industry was 48.6 percent, an increase of 0.7 percentage points over the previous month. The sales price index of construction industry was 49.9 percent, an increase of 2.5 percentage points over the previous month.

Employment index was 49.6 percent, slightly increased 0.1 percentage point over the previous month, and was below the threshold, indicating the labor employment of non-manufacturing enterprises decreased. In view of different industries, the employment index of service industry was 49.4 percent, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month. The employment index of construction industry was 50.2 percent, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over the previous month.

Business activities expectation index was 61.1 percent, went up by 1.1 percentage points over last month, and kept rising in the high level of the range.

Main Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally adjusted)
Unit: %
	Non-manufacturing PMI	New Orders Index	Input Price Index	Sales Price Index	Employment Index	Business Activities Expectation Index

2014-October	53.8	51.0	52.0	48.8	48.9	59.9
November	53.9	50.1	50.6	47.7	49.5	59.7
December	54.1	50.5	50.1	47.3	49.1	59.5
2015-January	53.7	50.2	47.6	46.9	50.3	59.6
February	53.9	51.2	52.5	51.2	49.8	58.7
March	53.7	50.3	50.0	48.4	49.0	58.8
April	53.4	49.1	50.8	48.9	48.9	60.0
May	53.2	49.5	52.8	50.4	47.6	60.1
June	53.8	51.3	50.6	48.7	49.7	59.7
July	53.9	50.1	48.9	47.4	49.2	60.0
August	53.4	49.6	49.6	47.8	49.5	59.7
September	53.4	50.2	50.8	47.9	49.5	60.0
October	53.1	51.2	51.2	48.8	49.6	61.1

Other Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally adjusted)
Unit: %
	Foreign New Orders Index	Unfilled Orders Index	Stock Index	Supplier Delivery Time Index

2014-October	49.0	45.6	47.3	52.5
November	49.3	44.1	46.3	51.5
December	52.9	46.7	46.7	51.4
2015-January	53.3	45.4	46.5	51.6
February	52.1	46.5	47.8	51.5
March	51.5	43.1	47.2	52.0
April	49.7	44.2	46.4	52.5
May	47.9	43.7	46.8	52.0
June	50.1	44.7	47.0	51.9
July	46.2	43.4	46.7	51.9
August	46.6	43.7	45.8	51.7
September	51.1	43.7	46.1	51.7
October	49.5	43.5	45.9	51.6

Annotations:

1. Explanatory Notes

China non-manufacturing purchasing manager index system constituted by 10 sub-indices, they are business activity index, new orders index, new export orders index in hand orders index, stock index, input price index, sales price index, employment index, supplier delivery time index, and business activities expectation index. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development, A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates expansion from the previous month, while below indicates contraction.

2. Statistical Coverage

The statistical coverage has been adjusted since June 2015. Non-manufacturing industry divisions in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities" (GB/T4754-2011) were extended to 31 from original 27, and sampling enterprises were extended to 4000 from original 1200.

3. Survey Methods

Non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey was conducted in PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, using the non-manufacturing sectors as the selecting layers, distribution of sample size was according to their value-added accounted for the proportion of total non-manufacturing value-added, and samples within layers and the main business revenue of the enterprises were selected by the PPS.

The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.

4. Calculation Methods

Non-manufacturing purchasing managers survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers delivery time, and business activities expectation. Diffusion index was calculated on each question, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers.

5. Seasonal Adjustment Note

The purchasing manager’s survey is a monthly survey, great fluctuations of data which affected by seasonal factors. At present, time series of China's non-manufacturing PMI have met the technical requirements of the seasonally adjustment, and the sub-indices of non-manufacturing PMI data on seasonally adjusted will be released since March 2012.

6. Explanation on Release Date Change

Since 2015, non-manufacturing PMI data will be released on the 1st of each month, which was originally on the 3rd of each month. At the same time, in order to make it easier for the public to understand the meaning of related indicators, the original “intermediate input price index” was turned to “input prices index”, and the original “subscription price index” was turned to “sales prices index”.