China's Non-manufacturing PMI Decreased in January
National Bureau of Statistics of China2015-02-02 15:47




Department of Service Statistics of NBS

China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)

 

In January 2015, non-manufacturing purchasing manager index was 53.7 percent, decreased 0.4 percentage points over the previous month, and 3.7 percentage points higher than the threshold, indicating that China's non-manufacturing sector still remained stable development. 

 

 

 

In view of different industries, non-manufacturing purchasing manager index of service industry was 52.9 percent, decreased 0.4 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that the total business of service industry continued to maintain growth, but the growth slowed down. Of which, the indices of retail trade, telecommunications, broadcasting, television and satellite transmission services were positioned in the high level of the range, and the business activities were active; the indices of real estate, air transport, loading, unloading and portage, storage were below the threshold, and the total enterprise business declined. Non-manufacturing purchasing manager index of construction industry achieved 56.9 percent, down by 0.2 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that growth of total enterprise business of construction industry continued to maintain growth, while at a slightly narrowed pace. 

 

New orders index was 50.2 percent, down by 0.3 percentage points over the previous month, higher than the threshold, indicating the non-manufacturing market demand continued to maintain growth. In view of different industries, the new orders index of service industry was 50.2 percent, increased 0.6 percentage points over the previous month, and rose over the threshold. The new orders index of construction industry was 50.4 percent, decreased 3.6 percentage points over the previous month, still higher than the threshold, and the growth rate of market demand decreased. 

 

Input price index was 47.6 percent, down by 2.5 percentage points over last month, dropped below the threshold, indicating the  input price during the process of production and operation of non-manufacturing enterprises dropped over last month. In view of different industries, the intermediate input price index of service industry was 47.7 percent, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points over the previous month, and lower than the threshold. The input price index of construction industry was 47.1 percent, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points over the previous month, and continued to stay below the threshold.

 

The sales price index was 46.9 percent, 0.4 percentage points lower over last month, and has stayed below the threshold for 7 consecutive months, showing that the overall level of non-manufacturing sales price trended down. In view of different industries, the sales price index of service industry was 46.4 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points over the previous month, and stayed below the threshold. The sales price index of construction industry was 48.7 percent, down by 0.2 percentage points over last month, and has stayed below the threshold for 3 consecutive months.

 

Employment index was 50.3 percent, increased 1.2 percentage points over the previous month, indicating the labor employment of non-manufacturing enterprises increased. In view of different industries, the employment index of service industry was 49.6 percent, an increase of 0.6 percentage points over the previous month, and was lower than the threshold. The employment index of construction industry was 53.1 percent, up by 3.6 percentage points over last month, and rose over the threshold.

 

Business activities expectation index  was 59.6 percent, slightly went up by 0.1 percentage point over last month, continued to be positioned in the high level of the range, indicating that the non-manufacturing enterprises maintained optimistic about the market development expectation in next three months.

 

 

Main Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally adjusted)

Unit: %

 

Non-manufacturing PMI

New Orders Index

Input Price Index

Sales Price Index

Employment index

Business Activities Expectation Index

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2014-January

53.4

50.9

54.5

50.1

49.7

58.1

February

55.0

51.4

52.1

49.0

50.9

59.9

March

54.5

50.8

52.8

49.5

51.4

61.5

April

54.8

50.8

52.4

49.4

50.2

61.5

May

55.5

52.7

54.5

49.0

50.9

60.7

June

55.0

50.7

56.0

50.8

50.4

60.4

July

54.2

50.7

53.4

49.5

49.3

61.5

August

54.4

50.0

52.2

48.3

49.6

61.2

September

54.0

49.5

49.8

47.3

49.5

60.9

October

53.8

51.0

52.0

48.8

48.9

59.9

November

53.9

50.1

50.6

47.7

49.5

59.7

December

54.1

50.5

50.1

47.3

49.1

59.5

2015-January

53.7

50.2

47.6

46.9

50.3

59.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Other Indices of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally adjusted)

Unit: %

 

Foreign New Orders Index

Unfilled Orders Index

Stock Index

Supplier Delivery Time Index

 

 

 

 

 

2014-January

50.1

45.1

48.7

52.0

February

48.3

45.3

46.5

51.5

March

51.7

44.9

48.3

52.1

April

51.0

44.3

47.2

52.1

May

52.7

45.6

47.1

52.4

June

50.2

45.3

45.9

52.7

July

49.8

46.1

48.3

51.6

August

51.6

46.5

46.9

52.2

September

50.8

44.0

46.1

51.7

October

49.0

45.6

47.3

52.5

November

49.3

44.1

46.3

51.5

December

52.9

46.7

46.7

51.4

2015-January

53.3

45.4

46.5

51.6

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Annotations:

 

1. Explanatory Notes

 

China non-manufacturing purchasing manager index system constituted by 10 sub-indices, they are business activity index, new orders index, new export orders index in hand orders index, stock index, input price index, sales price index, employment index, supplier delivery time index, and business activities expectation index. Due to the lack of synthesis of non-manufacturing integrated PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development, A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates expansion from the previous month, while below indicates contraction.

 

2. Statistical Coverage

 

The survey involves 27 non-manufacturing industry categories in the “Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities" (GB/T4754-2011), and was conducted in 1200 sampling enterprises of the non-manufacturing sector countrywide.

 

3. Survey Methods

 

Non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey was conducted in PPS ( Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method, using the non-manufacturing sectors as the selecting layers, distribution of sample size was according to their value-added accounted for the proportion of total non-manufacturing value-added, and samples within layers and the main business revenue of the enterprises were selected by the PPS.

 

The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices, monthly through Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.

 

4. Calculation Methods

 

Non-manufacturing purchasing managers survey involves 10 questions on production, new orders (business required), export, existing orders, finished goods inventory, intermediate input price, subscription price, employees, suppliers delivery time, and business activities expectation. Diffusion index was calculated on each question, i.e. percentage of positive answers in number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers.

 

5. Seasonal Adjustment Note

 

The purchasing manager’s survey is a monthly survey, great fluctuations of data which affected by seasonal factors. At present, time series of China's non-manufacturing PMI have met the technical requirements of the seasonally adjustment, and the sub-indices of non-manufacturing PMI data on seasonally adjusted will be released since March 2012.

 

6. Explanation on Release Date Change

 

Since 2015, non-manufacturing PMI data will be released on the 1st of each month, which was originally on the 3rd of each month. At the same time, in order to make it easier for the public to understand the meaning of related indicators, the original “intermediate input price index” was turned to “input prices index”, and the original “subscription price index” was turned to “sales prices index”.

 

 

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