National Economy Maintained a Generally Stable Performance in October
National Bureau of Statistics of China2019-11-14 10:00




National Bureau of Statistics of China

14 November 2019

 

In October, faced with the complex international economic situation and the downward pressure on domestic economy, under the guidance of the CPC Central Committee with comrade Xi Jinping as the core, all regions and departments implemented the decisions and arrangements made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, fully implemented the new development philosophy, stuck to the requirements of high-quality development, focused on the supply-side structural reform, intensified efforts on deepening the reform and opening up further, on countercyclical macro policy regulation, as well as on maintaining stability in areas like employment, financial sector, foreign trade, foreign investment, domestic investment and market expectation. The national economy was generally stable with the structural adjustment advancing steadily and progressively.

 

1.   The Service Sector Witnessed Steady Growth with Modern Service Industries Growing Well.

 

In the first ten months, the Index of Services Production increased by 7.0 percent, the same as that of the first nine months. In October, the Index of Services Production increased by 6.6 percent year on year, and 0.1 percentage point slower than that of the previous month. The Index of Services Production of information transmission, software and information technology services, and leasing and business services grew by 16.9 percent and 11.3 percent respectively, 10.3 percentage points and 4.7 percentage points higher than the growth of the Index of Services Production. The Business Activity Index for services was 51.4 percent, continuing to stay above the 50-point mark separating growth from contraction. The Business Activity Index for sectors like air transport, post, and internet, software and information technology services all stayed within the expansion range with the index higher than 55.0 percent. The Business Activity Expectation Index for services was 60.3 percent, 1.0 percentage point higher than the previous month.

 

2.    The Industrial Growth Continued with New Industries and New Products Growing Fast.

 

In the first ten months, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 5.6 percent, same as that of the first nine months. In October, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above the designated size grew by 4.7 percent year on year, 1.1 percentage points slower than the previous month. An analysis by types of ownership showed that, the value added of the state holding enterprises went up by 4.8 percent; share-holding enterprises up by 5.4 percent; and enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan up by 2.1 percent. In terms of sectors, the value added of the mining went up by 3.9 percent, the manufacturing up by 4.6 percent and the production and supply of electricity, thermal power, gas and water up by 6.6 percent. The value added of high-tech manufacturing grew by 8.3 percent, 3.6 percentage points faster than that of the industrial enterprises above the designated size; specifically, manufacturing of medical equipment and measuring instrument and equipment, manufacturing of electronic and communication equipment as well as manufacturing of medicine, grew by 14.0 percent, 8.5 percent and 7.0 percent, or 9.3 percentage points, 3.8 percentage points and 2.3 percentage points faster than that of the industrial enterprises above the designated size. The production of optical fibres, solar cells, micro computer equipment grew by 59.4 percent, 28.4 percent and 9.4 percent respectively. Of the sub-indexes of the Manufacturing PMI, the Production Index and the Supplier Delivery Time Index reached 50.8 percent and 50.1 percent, both staying above the threshold. The Business Activity Expectation Index for Manufacturing was 54.2 percent, staying within the expansion range.

 

3.    The Market Sales Grew Steadily, and Online Retail Sales of Goods as well as Consumption of Services are Rising.

 

In the first ten months, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 33,477.8 billion yuan, up by 8.1 percent, and 0.1 percent point slower than that of the first nine months. In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,810.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.2 percent, 0.6 percentage point slower than last month. Specifically, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles increased by 8.3 percent. Analyzed by different areas, the retail sales in urban areas reached 3,274.4 billion yuan, up by 7.0 percent, and the retail sales in rural areas reached 536.0 billion yuan, up by 8.6 percent. Grouped by consumption patterns, the income of the catering was 436.7 billion yuan, up by 9.0 percent; and the retail sales of goods were 3,373.7 billion yuan, up by 7.0 percent. The upgraded goods grew rapidly. The retail sales of communication appliances and that of sports and recreational articles above the designated size grew by 22.9 percent and 11.5 percent, or 15.7 percentage points and 4.3 percentage points faster than the growth of the total retail sales of consumer goods. Earnings from domestic tourism and movie box office are increasing continuously and rapidly.

 

In the first ten months, the online retail sales reached 8,230.7 billion yuan, up by 16.4 percent year on year, or 0.4 percentage point slower than that of the first nine months. Of the total, the online retail sales of physical goods reached 6,517.2 billion yuan, up by 19.8 percent, accounting for 19.5 percent of the total retail sales of consumer goods, or 2.0 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year.

 

4.    The Growth of Investment was Generally Stable, and the Investment in High-tech Industries and Social Sectors Sustained Fast Growth.

 

In the first ten months, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 51,088.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 5.2 percent, or 0.2 percentage point slower than the first nine months. Specifically, the investment in infrastructure grew by 4.2 percent year on year, in manufacturing up by 2.6 percent and in real estate development up by 10.3 percent. The floor space of commercial buildings sold reached 1,332.51 million square meters, up by 0.1 percent year on year, and the total sales of commercial buildings were 12,441.7 billion yuan, up by 7.3 percent. In terms of sectors, the investment in the primary industry went down by 2.4 percent; that in the secondary industry grew by 2.3 percent; that in the tertiary industry grew by 6.8 percent. Private investment reached 29,152.2 billion yuan, up by 4.4 percent. In the first ten months, the investment in high-tech industries increased by 14.2 percent year on year, 9.0 percentage points faster than the total investment. Specifically, the investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services went up by 14.5 percent and 13.7 percent respectively. The investment in social sectors went up by 12.9 percent year on year, among which, the investment in education,and in culture, sports and entertainment went up by 18.0 percent and 13.8 percent respectively.

 

5. The Whole-year Target for the Newly Increased Employed People was Accomplished in Advance and the Surveyed Unemployment Rate Dropped Slightly.

 

In the first ten months, the newly increased employed people in urban areas numbered 11.93 million. The whole-year target of 11.00 million was accomplished in advance. In October, the surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.1 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than that of last month, among which, the surveyed unemployed rate for population aged from 25 to 59 was 4.6 percent, the same as last month. The urban surveyed unemployment rate in 31 major cities was 5.1 percent, 0.1 percentage point lower than last month. The employees of enterprises worked averagely 46.8 hours per week, an increase of 0.1 hour over last month.

 

6. The Consumer Price Experienced Faster Growth, and the Producer Prices for Industrial Products Dropped.

 

In October, the consumer price went up by 3.8 percent year on year, 0.8 percentage point faster than the previous month, or up by 0.9 percent month on month. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food, tobacco and alcohol went up by 11.4 percent year on year; clothing up by 1.2 percent; housing up by 0.5 percent; articles and services for daily use up by 0.6 percent; transport and communication down by 3.5 percent; education, culture and recreation up by 1.9 percent; medical services and health care up by 2.1 percent; other articles and services up by 5.5 percent. Among the prices for food, tobacco and alcohol, the price for grain went up by 0.5 percent, pork up by 101.3 percent, fresh vegetables down by 10.2 percent and fresh fruits down by 0.3 percent. Core CPI excluding the prices of food and energy went up by 1.5 percent, the same as last month. For the first ten months, the consumer price went up by 2.6 percent year on year.

 

In October, the producer prices for industrial products went down by 1.6 percent year on year, up by 0.1 percent month on month. The purchasing prices for industrial producers went down by 2.1 percent year on year, up by 0.2 percent month on month. For the first ten months, the producer prices for industrial products went down by 0.2 percent year on year and the purchasing prices for industrial producers went down by 0.5 percent.

 

7. The Downward Trend for Exports was Reversed, and the Trade Structure was Further Optimized.

 

In October, the total value of imports and exports was 2,707.1 billion yuan, down by 0.5 percent year on year, 2.7 percentage points less compared with the previous month. Of the total, the value of exports was 1,504.2 billion yuan, up by 2.1 percent year on year, while that in the previous month was down by 0.7 percent; the value of imports was 1,202.9 billion yuan, down by 3.5 percent, 2.5 percentage points less compared with previous month. The trade balance was 301.3 billion in surplus. The trade size continued to expand. In the first ten months, the total value of imports and exports was 25,627.3 billion yuan, up by 2.4 percent. Of the total, the total value of exports was 13,984.0 billion yuan, up by 4.9 percent; the total value of imports was 11,643.2 billion yuan, down by 0.4 percent. The trade structure continued to be optimized. The import and export of general trade grew by 4.8 percent, accounting for 59.3 percent of the total value of imports and exports, 1.4 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. The total value of imports and exports by private enterprises went up by 10.3 percent, accounting for 42.4 percent of the total value of imports and exports, or 3 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year. The export delivery value of industrial enterprises above the designated size reached 10,113.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8 percent.

 

8. The Supply-side Structural Reform was Advanced Continuously, and Profits of New Industries Grew Fast.

 

The micro leverage ratio dropped. By the end of September, the asset-liability ratio of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 56.9 percent, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3 percentage point. The commercial housing inventory was reduced. By the end of October, the floor space of commercial buildings for sale was 493.23 million square meters, down by 6.6 percent year on year, or 0.23 million square meters less compared with that by the end of September. Unit cost for enterprise continued to decrease compared with that at the beginning of the year. Investment in weak areas ramped up. For the first ten months, the investment in ecological protection and treatment of environmental pollution and in environmental monitoring and treatment services went up by 37.4 percent and 32.7 percent, or 32.2 percentage points and 27.5 percentage points faster than that of the total investment.

 

In the first nine months, the business revenue of service enterprises above the designated size went up by 9.3 percent year on year, among which, the strategic emerging services, high-tech services as well as science and technology services went up by 11.8 percent, 11.4 percent and 11.2 percent respectively, or 2.5 percentage points, 2.1 percentage points and 1.9 percentage points faster than that of the service enterprises above designated size. The operating profits of service enterprises above the designated size went up by 3.7 percent year on year. In the first nine months, the profits made by the industrial enterprises above the designated size went down by 2.1 percent year on year. Of the total, the profits made by manufacturing of electrical machinery and apparatus, manufacturing of special purpose machinery, and manufacturing of non-metallic mineral products went up by 13.5 percent, 12.9 percent and 11.8 percent. The business revenue of the industrial enterprises above the designated size went up by 4.5 percent.

 

Meanwhile, we must be aware that as the growth of global economy is slowing down with many external instabilities and uncertainties, cyclinical issues coupled with structural issues at home are bringing more downward pressure on the economy. We must follow the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, hold on to the bottom-line thinking, insist on the the general working guideline of making progress while maintaining stability, focus on the implementation and coordination of all formulated policies, strengthen the economic resilience, withstand the downward pressure, facilitate the steady growth of employment, ensure the general stability of prices, and guarantee people’s basic needs in a solid way. We must strive to accomplish the principal target of this year in order to lay a solid foundation for the stable economic performance next year.

 

Notes:

 

1. The Index of Services Production is the change of production in the reporting period compared to the base period with the price factors deducted.

 

2. The growth rate of value added of industrial enterprises above designated size and its sub-items are real growth by using comparable prices. The growth rates of other indicators are nominal growth by using current prices unless otherwise specified.

 

3. Industrial enterprises above designated size are industrial enterprises with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan.

 

As industrial enterprises above the designated size change every year, to ensure the data comparability between years, the coverage of the data of the same period last year used for estimating year-on-year growth rates like that of products output, are as consistent as possible with the current period and different from the coverage of the data published last year. The main reasons are as follows: First, the statistical units change. Every year, some enterprises are included in the survey as they meet the threshold, while some enterprises are removed from the survey because of downsizing. Besides, enterprises that have newly gone into operation, been bankrupted, canceled their registrations or had their business licenses revoked also cause impact. Second, duplicated outputs across regions of enterprise groups have been removed based on the ad hoc surveys since duplication was found in the products output of some enterprise groups.

 

4. The scope of the total retail sales of consumer goods include all legal entities, establishments and self-employed individuals involved in retail trades or providing catering services. Specifically, businesses above the designated size include wholesale enterprises (businesses), retail enterprises (businesses) and lodging and catering enterprises (businesses) with annual revenue from principal business over 20 million yuan, 5 million yuan and 2 million yuan respectively.

 

As the wholesale, retail, and lodging and catering enterprises (businesses) above the designated size change every year, to ensure the data comparability between years, the coverage of the data of the same period last year used for estimating year-on-year growth rates like that of the retail sales of consumer goods by businesses above the designated size is consistent with the current period and different from the coverage of data published last year. The main reasons are as follows: First, every year, some enterprises (businesses) are included in the survey as they meet the threshold, while some enterprises (businesses) are removed from the survey because of downsizing. Besides, enterprises (businesses) that have newly gone into operation, been bankrupted, canceled their registrations or had their business licenses revoked also cause impact. Second, as for the monthly data of 2019, the businesses above the designated size by the end of 2018 were reviewed and verified and enterprises (businesses) that failed to meet the threshold were recategorized as below the designated size based on the results from the entities inventory checking of the fourth economic census (from August to December, 2018).

 

Online retail sales refer to the retail sales of goods and services realized through internet trading platforms (including self-built websites and third-party platforms). Goods and services include physical goods and non-physical goods (e.g. virtue goods and services).

 

The total retail sales of consumer goods include the online retail sales of physical goods, but not the non-physical goods. 

 

5. The data of investment in fixed assets of the same period last year are revised according to the results of statistical law enforcement and inspection and the results from the entities inventory checking of the fourth economic census. The growth rates are calculated on a comparable basis.

 

6. Employed people refer to people aged 16 and above who have the ability to work and engage in gainful employment for remuneration payment or business income.

 

7. And data of newly increased employed people in urban areas are from the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security. And data of imports and exports are from the General Administration of Customs.

 

8. Due to the rounding-off reasons, the subentries may not add up to the aggregate totals.

 

In case of any differences between English translation and the original Chinese text, the Chinese edition shall prevail.

 

 

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